AI remains unprofitable, largely useless

There’s just one problem with this master plan: OpenAI doesn’t have the money to pay for it. For example, OpenAI is committing to pay Oracle $60 billion in capex investment annually for five years. For reference, Meta, one of the most valuable and profitable companies in the world, which brought in $164.5 billion in revenue in 2024 and ended the year with a free cash flow of $52.10 billion, plans to spend $72 billion in 2025 building data centers. OpenAI, on the other hand, is on pace to bring in $12.7 billion this year, expects to lose $9 billion, predicts its losses will swell to $47 billion by 2028, and doesn’t expect to break even until 2029. How can OpenAI plan to spend five times what it brought in?

The AI Ouroboros at The American Prospect

So if you’re trying to follow along, you have three companies. Nvidia makes computer chips. Oracle fleeces the federal government by making it impossible to move to cheaper, modern infrastructure provides cloud architecture. And OpenAI makes software that lies confidently makes software that lies confidently.

OpenAI has grand plans but no money. Oracle is desperately trying to modernize itself before people figure out it’s a dinosaur. Nvidia actually produces useful things. So OpenAI is going to pay Oracle to host their data centers so they can convert more scarce natural resources into false information. Oracle is buying tons of Nvidia chips. And Nvidia is pledging money to OpenAI to try and make all this happen.

Imagine you create three companies, A, B, and C. A pledges $100 billion to B. B pledges $100 billion to C. And C pledges $100 billion to A. No one has any actual money, but you now have three hundred billion dollar companies, and the stock market will manifest the value.

New film from Kodak

“To help meet the growing demand for film, Kodak is excited to announce the launch of two color-negative films, KODACOLOR 100 and KODACOLOR 200, in 135 format rolls,” Kodak said in an Instagram post. “For the first time in over a decade, Kodak will sell these films directly to distributors, in an effort to increase supply and help create greater stability in a market where prices have fluctuated.”

https://www.404media.co/kodak-is-selling-its-own-film-again-for-the-first-time-in-a-decade

Now, I wonder, did I accidentally sell my film cameras with my dad’s estate, or are they in a box somewhere in my house? I honestly don’t know. For a long time after I stopped using them (or shooting film at all), I kept my grandfather’s Konica, the camera I learned on, and my Nikon N70, the first SLR I purchased myself (woo Ritz Camera employee discount in 1998). But I do not know where they are NOW.

I have thought about buying a Nikon F5 – that was my dream camera back then, Nikon’s flagship, and WAY out of my price range as a poor college student. But now you can get a nice on for less than $500 on eBay. The question is whether I would actually use it, or just use my Canon mirrorless. Which I ALSO do not use nearly as much as I should.

Back to the article – in general I find discussions of which film to use kind of tedious. I shot a lot of Fuji back when I was shooting film, but that was largely because they had a deal with Ritz so it was cheaper than Kodak. I then told myself that Kodak color was too warm, which I probably made up so that I was making an artistic choice rather than a financial one. It would be fun to shoot a roll or two of Fuji Velvia, which is now about $1/frame, not including developing. I’d have to be really careful with it.

All that to say I don’t really care what film Kodak is packaging now – just the fact that they are expanding film production or even just upping marketing of film is good for people who shoot film or are considering it.

Lastly, the link is from 404 Media, of which I am a paid subscriber. They do good journalism (largely more important stuff than this piece).

Finally – 50 States

I have been wanting to do the WABA Fifty States ride forever. It’s a really cool concept – the route takes you on all fifty of the state-named streets in DC. But it’s always a Saturday in September, and since I have two children with birthdays in September, I’ve never been free when the ride happened. But that changed this year – Gremlin 2 was in Raleigh, NC, for two soccer games, and Gremlin 1 is kinda too old to care if her dad is home. Gremlin 2 as well, for that matter.

So I did the ride. I started with a group of friends and friends of friends. Well, actually I started by dropping Gremlin 2 off in Alexandria at 630AM to catch the team bus to North Carolina. But I started the ride with friends. However, it shortly became clear that the pace they were going was not going to get me home in time to take Gremlin 1 to her soccer game, so I had to forge ahead on my own.

Quick plug for the turn-by-turn routing on my Wahoo (link is to one version newer than mine but whatever) – the ride is not marked like many are, and the roads are not closed, so you need to know where you are going. My Wahoo sent me on ONE wrong turn, and I followed the rider ahead of me on one other, but that was it.

It’s interesting to do a ride in the city. The organized rides I’ve done previously are out in much more rural areas, and there are not many cars. There are markers spray painted at turns. This ride is NOT that. We had to navigate around drivers, pedestrians, and other cyclists, not to mention they adjusted the route to avoid the H Street Festival road closures. It’s a very different vibe, and it attracts a different type of cyclist.

I highly recommend you do the ride if you think you’re able. It’s challenging – almost 60 miles plus 3,000 feet of climbing (and a good chunk of it in the last third of the ride, stupid upper Northwest and its leafy avenues). But you don’t have to do it FAST (unless you have a soccer conflict). The ride marshalls are pretty good if you aren’t comfortable on your own, or find some friends and let them take care of you.

Also, it’s better to have more time so you can celebrate with the other finishers at Metrobar. I had to leave so I could shower and take a quick nap before soccer.

Targeted like a Stormtrooper

The below comment made it through the WordPress spam filter and into my moderation queue. I don’t know why – it’s clearly garbage spam, and it’s on a 2006 post I did clearly trying to farm hits from John Scalzi’s large fanbase.

Hey! Just launched TurboJot — the AI-powered outreach tool that actually wrote and submitted this message. It auto-fills forms with human-like messaging and precision targeting, consistently driving more conversions than email or ads. Book a demo on our site: https://go.turbojot.com/discover

I’m leaving the link in because you should know what this company’s product is. It frankly isn’t bad at sounding like a person. Unfortunately, it sounds exactly like a person writing a spam comment or email. And the targeting – back at the height of this blog, I got a decent amount of traffic for the poorly written ramblings of a completely unfamous person. But this particular post (I don’t have hit counters from the beginning any more) has three hits this year. Probably all AI scrapers that managed to trick WordPress into thinking it was a “view”.

Hat tip to Adriano for the post title.

At Long Last – My White Whale

In about 2011, I got back into baseball cards. I collected for a while around 1989-1992, the peak of the Junk Wax Era, when the market was flooded with cards that everyone thought were going to be investments like the cards your grandmother threw away in the 1950’s. I never had any money then, but in 2011 I had a real job and some friends who were ALSO interested in getting back into it.

I started collecting Aroldis Chapman cards. He was a young Cuban pitcher with an AMAZING fastball. He played for the Cincinnati Reds, which meant as an Oriole fan, he could never really hurt me. I have quite an extensive collection of his cards from 2009-2014. Then, at close to the same time, there were accusations (pretty substantiated, I think) of domestic abuse AND he went to the Yankees. I lost interest in my collection.

If you aren’t familiar with baseball cards since 2010 or so, I need to explain a few things. In order to avoid the overproduction of the early 1990s, they do limited print runs of some cards. Often a player will have his regular card, then they will do, say, 500 of that same card with a different color border, and they’ll number then out of 500 so you know you have the limited edition. They also put the printing plates into circulation. These are three metal versions of the card that they claim to actually use in the process of printing the card. There is only one of each of the three.

At the height of my collecting, late 2014, I found this on eBay.

This is a framed mini card (my favorite type of card). The card itself is about the size of a tobacco card, and it’s encased in plastic, and then a cardboard border to make it the same dimensions as a standard baseball card. This is the printing plate for a 2011 mini. It says on the back that it’s card , but I have card , and it’s NOT that. I scoured every website that dealt with cards and I couldn’t find ANY evidence of this card existing. I did find that there was a card, , that was a Chapman found inside of a rip card. This is a regular-dimension card but thicker with a pull tab on the back. You can choose to pull the tab, lowering the value, but MAYBE there’s something inside worth even more.

However, even armed with this suspicion, nothing. I even offered a bounty for proof of existence and nothing.

Here we are, nearly 11 years later, and a few weeks ago a hit on my eBay search. I found it! I was indeed correct that it was from inside a rip card, and someone had it for sale! I went back and forth for a while because he was asking a lot for it. But in the end, I couldn’t resist. I made him an offer (still too much) and he took it.

Yesterday, it arrived.

I can’t believe it took over a decade.

And as you can see, the printing plate is a liar:

It’s not 5, it’s 385. Whatever. Stupid lying sticker.

As an added bonus, this has inspired me to try to sell off the collection, aside from a few favorites. They just take up space. I was hoping his new contract with the Red Sox would bump his popularity enough to get some interest in the cards, but so far that has not really been the case. Anyone want to buy some Chapmans? I’ve got some really nice stuff…

Cryptocurrency is not money

One easy way to tell that cryptocurrency won’t ever be real money is to see how Venmo talks about it. I got an email not long ago from them about crypto.

If it were real money, the email would have bragged about how using crypto meant my Venmo transactions were faster and more secure! They would have mentioned on the INTERNAL deck that it was cheaper, too, but they won’t share that with customers because they would absolutely not pass those savings on.

What did Venmo ACTUALLY send me? A plug to invest in crypto. They want as much of your money managed in the Venmo app as possible, that’s how they make money (this makes sense, I’m not arguing they shouldn’t do this).

But if crypto was really a good way to move money around, either Venmo would be using it, or another company using it would have come in already and eaten their lunch. ACH is archaic. Instant transfers like Zelle are implemented so poorly that I suspect most of their day-to-day is dealing with fraud. If the crypto-pushers were right, this would all go away.

If you want to invest in an unregulated, unsecured magic bean, be my guest. There are definitely opportunities there. But you have to go in knowing it’s very risky, and that’s the part people usually skip over.

Biking is faster than driving in a city

Met the fire alarm guy at one location in Columbia Heights this morning. We were going to another spot in Adams Morgan after.

“How long will it take you to bike there? Google says it’s a ten minute drive”

“Probably about that. There’s a bike lane almost the whole way, it’s like an express lane.”

I arrive at the location, lock my bike, make sure I brought the right key, sit down on the stairs to check my email, confirm an appointment for Friday, then i get a text.

“I’m parked down the street, let me know when you arrive.”

“I’m here already.”

I love being smug about biking in the city. A few years back I met a contractor out in Arlington, and then we went to another location on 16th St NW near Q. I beat him by 30 minutes in the early afternoon traffic.

Blood, how does it work?

Note: I am not a doctor. The following is almost definitely not how blood works. My wife doesn't think it works this way, either, though TBF she is ALSO not a doctor.

I’m pretty sure I learned in school that blood is your body’s transportation system. It brings things from one place to another. It’s like a small and very chaotic train system. But does it carry heat?

Today it’s cold AF in DC. Like you go outside and the wind blows and it makes you cry and then your tears freeze. Like early spring it northern Michigan cold. I had to get my ride in for Freezing Saddles, and happened to have a work appointment, so I did both at once. The ride there wasn’t too terrible. It was cold but also short. Then I had to stand around outside for 30 minutes while the Board President talked to the contractors about to work next door.

I planned to toodle around a bit after the meeting to get some more miles in, but I headed home early because my fingers were so cold, shifting and braking were becoming difficult. Home is largely uphill from where I was, and as I pedaled, I got warmer and warmer. And my hands regained feeling!

So, my hypothesis is that the extra heat in my core (I have always run hot) spreads to my extremities and keeps them warmer. But the thing I’d like someone to explain is the actual physical process whereby this happens. If my core is hot, does whatever regulates my body heat move on? “Job here is done, let’s move to the fingers!” Maybe my body is always trying to get every part warm, and when one part is already good, it makes it easier to get to the other parts? Or does heat travel via the blood? “WHOA this blood here is HOT, let’s get it pumped to the fingers and toes right away!”

Anyway, I have no idea how it works. I’m glad it does, because I appreciate having feeling in my fingers and probably lots of other things that blood does.

Blogging is its own reward

https://andysblog.uk/why-blog-if-nobody-reads-it

There is a hidden value in blogging. There’s an old Zen saying: “Chop wood, carry water.” You do it not for the applause but because it needs doing.

I hear you on that, Andy. Sometimes I think about posting something extraordinarily stupid here, like way beyond normal levels of stupid, just to see if anyone is paying attention (No one is).

But I will keep blogging. I will keep generating original content of dubious quality, for my own enrichment if no one is reading it. The LLMs are reading, and if we stop making original content they’ll just train on their own content. You think it’s bad NOW…