At Long Last – My White Whale

In about 2011, I got back into baseball cards. I collected for a while around 1989-1992, the peak of the Junk Wax Era, when the market was flooded with cards that everyone thought were going to be investments like the cards your grandmother threw away in the 1950’s. I never had any money then, but in 2011 I had a real job and some friends who were ALSO interested in getting back into it.

I started collecting Aroldis Chapman cards. He was a young Cuban pitcher with an AMAZING fastball. He played for the Cincinnati Reds, which meant as an Oriole fan, he could never really hurt me. I have quite an extensive collection of his cards from 2009-2014. Then, at close to the same time, there were accusations (pretty substantiated, I think) of domestic abuse AND he went to the Yankees. I lost interest in my collection.

If you aren’t familiar with baseball cards since 2010 or so, I need to explain a few things. In order to avoid the overproduction of the early 1990s, they do limited print runs of some cards. Often a player will have his regular card, then they will do, say, 500 of that same card with a different color border, and they’ll number then out of 500 so you know you have the limited edition. They also put the printing plates into circulation. These are three metal versions of the card that they claim to actually use in the process of printing the card. There is only one of each of the three.

At the height of my collecting, late 2014, I found this on eBay.

This is a framed mini card (my favorite type of card). The card itself is about the size of a tobacco card, and it’s encased in plastic, and then a cardboard border to make it the same dimensions as a standard baseball card. This is the printing plate for a 2011 mini. It says on the back that it’s card , but I have card , and it’s NOT that. I scoured every website that dealt with cards and I couldn’t find ANY evidence of this card existing. I did find that there was a card, , that was a Chapman found inside of a rip card. This is a regular-dimension card but thicker with a pull tab on the back. You can choose to pull the tab, lowering the value, but MAYBE there’s something inside worth even more.

However, even armed with this suspicion, nothing. I even offered a bounty for proof of existence and nothing.

Here we are, nearly 11 years later, and a few weeks ago a hit on my eBay search. I found it! I was indeed correct that it was from inside a rip card, and someone had it for sale! I went back and forth for a while because he was asking a lot for it. But in the end, I couldn’t resist. I made him an offer (still too much) and he took it.

Yesterday, it arrived.

I can’t believe it took over a decade.

And as you can see, the printing plate is a liar:

It’s not 5, it’s 385. Whatever. Stupid lying sticker.

As an added bonus, this has inspired me to try to sell off the collection, aside from a few favorites. They just take up space. I was hoping his new contract with the Red Sox would bump his popularity enough to get some interest in the cards, but so far that has not really been the case. Anyone want to buy some Chapmans? I’ve got some really nice stuff…

The shelf-life of a baseball reliever

Ever since I read Moneyball, which turned me into a baseball stat super genius, as it did for everyone else, I have wondered about the value of a relief pitcher. For the most part, they come and go pretty quickly. Today’s top set up guy is tomorrow’s DFA.

Mason Miller, the A’s closer, has been fantastic. A lot of people think he’ll move at the trade deadline, as the A’s certainly don’t need him to finish last again. How much would you give up for him? If we’re just talking “We need a top closer to win the World Series this year”, fine. But how many years is he going to be a top closer?

My theory was three years is the max except for really top-end guys. The corollary to my theory is that this doesn’t apply to Mariano Rivera, who was the best reliever ever by a large margin. To test my theory, I finally got a subscription to FanGraphs, dumped all data for relievers from 2000-2024, ranked them by WAR each year, and then counted how many times a guy was in the top 25.

PlayerYears in the top 25 in WAR
Mariano Rivera12
Kenley Jansen9
Joe Nathan8
David Robertson8
Craig Kimbrel8
Aroldis Chapman8
Trevor Hoffman7
Rafael Betancourt7
Jonathan Papelbon7
Francisco Rodríguez7
Billy Wagner7
Joakim Soria6
Octavio Dotel5
Liam Hendriks5
J.J. Putz5
Greg Holland5
Francisco Cordero5
Edwin Díaz5
Ryan Pressly4
Roberto Osuna4
Raisel Iglesias4
Matt Thornton4
Mark Melancon4
Ken Giles4
Keith Foulke4
Josh Hader4
Jonathan Broxton4
Joaquín Benoit4
Huston Street4
Heath Bell4
Emmanuel Clase4
Devin Williams4
Dellin Betances4
Byung-Hyun Kim4
Brad Lidge4
Brad Hand4
Bobby Jenks4
B.J. Ryan4
Andrew Miller4

There you go. 39 players since 2000 have been top 25 relievers more than 3 years. I might redo the analysis a bit – WAR may not be the best way to rank a reliever.

I was definitely right about Mariano Rivera.

Rivera warming up
Mariano Rivera throwing in the bullpen, spring training, 2013. Photo by the author

Of the 318 players who ranked in the top 25 in WAR in the 2000’s, 192 did it once. 60 did it twice and 27 three times. The rest is the list above.

Remembering family history, Willie Mays edition

I have long had it in my head that my grandmother was at the game where Willie Mays made The Catch. I just confirmed with my uncle that it was NOT that game, but rather another fantastic catch by Mays that they saw at the 1962 All Star Game at RFK Stadium in DC. They were sitting in straighaway center field and the catch was right beneath them so they didn’t actually see it until later on tv.

There’s a lot of old family history that gets misremembered here and there. I write the REAL stories down and spoil the fun for everyone because that’s how I roll.

RIP Willie